Illinois Political News, Gov. Quinn

From David Ormsby at Huffington Post:

Gov. Pat Quinn's office said the widely reported 86 percent funding level for state human services in the new Illinois budget signed by Quinn is purely "speculative."

Elizabeth Austin, the communications director at the Governor's Office of Management and Budget, said Friday the 86% figure -- which is currently swirling and bobbing in the media -- is only speculative because in addition to the $2.3 billion the legislature committed to human services, there is $1.2 billion available to the Quinn to spend at his "discretion."

Moreover, Austin noted that agency directors were still preparing budget plans for submission to the governor's office, so the funding level is unknown.

Austin refused to speculate on whether any of the $1.2 billion may be allocated to human services, only to repeat that the governor could spend that dough at his "discretion."

That emphasis on "discretion" is enough of a signal, however, to human service lobbyists: start your engines boys and girls.

Additionally, Austin was unable to clarify whether and what portion the $1.1 billion in budget reserves -- which House Democrat budget documents refer to as "mandated" reserves until new revenue materializes this year (cue the flying pigs) -- are included in the estimated 86% human services funding level, except to reiterate that agency budget plans were in formation.

What Austin could confirm, however, is that the state -- with a $3.9 billion bill backlog from last year -- is now on six-month bill payment cycle. Submit a bill on July 17, 2009; expect payment on January 17, 2010. Ouch.

With those financial institutions formerly known as banks shrinking and shriveling credit lines, that six-month stretch will almost certainly drive many social service agencies into bankruptcy. Poof.

Of the new Illinois budget's plan to push $3 billion in money owed to state service-provider payments into next year, one state human services association estimated that of that amount, $1.5 billion would be money owed to human-services providers. Austin was unable to confirm that number.

Whatever the human services spending percentage may be, Quinn's real -- and thankless -- job is to cut the budget. A lot. More at link.

There are many people in Illinois sweating out this budget on Humane Services. I called my State Representative's office to give them my view and was told that I was on a long list of people concerned about this issue. I'm hoping for the best because many people will suffer if this issue isn't funded.

Illinois Political News

Mark Kirk Denies Report He's Out Of Senate Race, Deciding Over Weekend

U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk is denying a report that he has decided not to run for the Senate in part to avoid a primary with the Illinois Republican Party Chairman.

The Washington Post's Chris Cilliza reported Friday afternoon that Kirk would not make a Senate bid, despite signaling to party leaders just days ago that he was planning to run.

The North Shore Republican appeared set to enter the race after Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan announced she would not run. A potential sticking point for Kirk, Cilliza reported, is his vote for the administration's climate change bill and a potential primary with state GOP chairman Andy McKenna:

[Kirk's decision] followed a meeting of the Illinois Republican congressional delegation on Thursday in which his colleagues refused to back Kirk in a primary against Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna due, in large part, to his vote in favor of President Barack Obama's climate change bill.

This is the idiot guy that told the Chinese not to believe the US Budget



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Quinn Shelving Tax Increase Push Until Fall

Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn is putting aside his call for an income tax increase until November.

In an interview Friday with The Associated Press, Quinn said he now wants to pass a state budget with significant spending cuts. Then in November, he would ask lawmakers to choose between balancing the budget by cutting even further or by raising taxes.

Quinn said delaying the decision for five months would provide time to study Medicaid spending, pension reforms and other cost-cutting measures.

Then officials would be in a better position to decide the best way to finish erasing a roughly $11.6 billion budget deficit.

The Democratic governor says he'll ask lawmakers to consider the idea when they return to Springfield next week.

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Giannoulias takes lead in fund-raising for a Senate bid

Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has raised $1.8 million for his Senate bid, while his likely Democratic rivals have zero dollars in their war chests.

Giannoulias has been fund-raising since March. Federal fund-raising reports, public next week, will show that Giannoulias raised about $670,000 in the second quarter of 2009.

Giannoulias is also in a position to pour some of his own money into his campaign; his federal financial disclosure statement will show that he is worth between $13 million and $62 million, I'm told.

Lisa Madigan is running again as State's Attorney but will Have Joe Birkett, from DuPage County as her opponent again. My opinion...Birkett doesn't have a chance!

Hastert Retiring, Will a Dem take his place?

Dennis Hastert isn't running again. Who will take his place? Chris Cillizza from Washinton Post's, The Fix, has some thoughts:

Analysis: Can Dems Pick Up Hastert and Pryce Seats?It's been a bad couple of days for House Republicans, as two senior lawmakers who once held top leadership positions in the GOP caucus -- former Speaker Dennis Hastert (Ill.) and ex-Conference Chairwoman Deborah Pryce (Ohio) -- said they will not run for reelection next fall.

We've written before in this space that with Republicans no longer in the majority and a national political environment that looks decidedly unfriendly for GOPers in 2008, it's likely that a number of lawmakers who had been contemplating leaving office in elections past will retire this time around.

Republicans currently have four open seats -- two in Illinois, Hastert's 14th District and Ray LaHood's 18th, Pryce's 15th in Ohio, and the 52nd in California, currently held by Duncan Hunter. (House Democrats are so far losing three lawmakers: Luis Gutierrez in Illinois's 4th, Mark Udall in Colorado's 2nd, and Tom Allen in Maine's 1st.)

Wholesale retirements could leave an underfunded National Republican Congressional Committee hard pressed to cover all of its vulnerabilities, creating the potential for another cycle of significant Democratic gains in the House.

Here's a quick synopsis of the political situation in the districts currently held by Hastert and Pryce. We'll provide this synopsis any time a seat comes open between now and next November. These are meant to be sketches; we'll return to each race with additional analysis as events warrant.

Illinois's 14th District

Geography: The 14th runs west out of Chicago, taking in the population hub of Aurora as well as several smaller towns like Geneva and St. Charles (home of The Fix's in-laws).

Electoral History: President Bush carried the 14th with 55 percent of the vote in 2004 and 54 percent in 2000. Hastert has held the seat easily since 1986.

Candidates: Both sides seem headed for a primary. For Republicans, dairy magnate Jim Oberweis and state Sen. Chris Lauzen are seen as the two most serious contenders. Oberweis has name identification as a result of three unsuccessful statewide races -- twice for Senate (2002, 2004) and once for governor (2006); he also has very deep pockets. Hastert will not likely endorse in the primary race to replace him, but he's made clear that Oberweis is his preferred candidate. Lauzen has held an Aurora-based legislative seat since 1992 and has already formed an exploratory committee for the race.

On the Democratic side, national party officials seem to prefer Bill Foster. Foster, a scientist who spent two decades working at Fermilab in Batavia, is independently wealthy and has already pledged to put $2 million into the race. Foster also released a poll conducted for his campaign in April that showed him trailing Hastert by 27 points but with a generic Democratic candidate ahead of a generic Republican candidate 40 percent to 30 percent. John Laesch, the party's 2006 nominee, looks set to run again. State Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia, seen by some as the party's strongest candidate, has said she will not run.

Outlook: By the numbers alone, this district shouldn't be all that tough for Republicans to hold. But with Sen. Dick Durbin (D) expected to cruise to reelection in 2008 and the possibility of Sen. Barack Obama on the national ticket, Democrats are increasingly optimistic. The 14th District is not all that dissimilar to Illinois's 8th District, which was won by Rep. Melissa Bean (D) in 2004, and the 6th district, which played host to an expensive and competitive open-seat race in 2006 -- eventually won by now Rep. Peter Roskam (R). One other X-factor in this race is that the district is almost entirely covered by the pricey Chicago media market. If Foster and Oberweis wind up as the nominees, this could be one of the most expensive races in the country.