Obama's Odds

E.J. Dionne Jr has a great article in the Washington post today called Why Obama Likes His Odds.

It was not the soaring rhetoric that is Barack Obama's signature, but he recently offered the sound bite that may define his presidency: "Don't bet against us."

He explains that Obama wasn't around when the Democrats were beaten down during the Clinton years:

But Obama doesn't quite see things the way his more nervous Democratic allies do because he missed the years in Washington during which his party was beaten down. Many Democrats had their perceptions of political reality shaped by the failure of Bill Clinton's health proposal, the 1994 Republican revolution and the GOP's triumphalism during President Bush's first term.

And this has been a problem. The Democrats were beaten down so badly during those years they seem to have lost their spine. And as Dionne says "no one ever thought passing a health-care bill would be easy, and the effort hit some bumps last week over costs and how to cover them."

Since then the Budget Office has reworked the numbers and found that the Public Option will work within the parameters Obama wants, Pay Go, and will actually save money.

Dionne goes on to say:

The paradox is that Obama's limited experience under Republican sway makes him more comfortable than many of his allies are with wielding the power that comes from large Democratic majorities.

And it's real power. Nothing made that clearer than the trajectory of Judge Sonia Sotomayor's Supreme Court nomination battle -- or non-battle.

Obama is doing a balancing act right now and the Democrats old way of thinking along with the constant beat down by the Republicans and the health insurers Obama has to fight all the way.

Dionne goes on to say:

But Obama must simultaneously convince Democrats that they are not living in the Republican congressional eras of 1995 or 2003 -- that if it's necessary, they have the strength on their own to win. This was the implicit message Obama conveyed to Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) to push him to conclude his frustratingly protracted health-care negotiations with Republicans in the Senate Finance Committee.

Getting Baucus to move this week is essential to maintaining momentum. If Obama seems likely to win, interest groups will be more forthcoming, his own party will be more likely to hold together and more Republicans will be inclined to cut a deal.

And that, finally, is why Obama wants to make sure his party bets with him, not against him. His core message to fellow Democrats is that the only things they have to fear are the fears and insecurities bred into them when they were a battered minority. Obama is free of those doubts because he never knew them.

So the fight is increasing and we have to stand behind Obama and keep sending those faxes, emails, phone calls and letters. This time we have to pass Health Care Reform or it may take another 100 years.